Good Morning 1-3A Football Fans!!
Today, we will be able to see the 1st AIA Power Points for the 1A-3A small school divisions.
Now you may ask how come we are only gonna try and predict the top 5 teams in 1-3A?!
Well it is simple-we feel like our rankings are more accurate but we cannot change the
system they choose to use so we really do not see the purpose of trying to figure out an
inaccurate system when we are already the best ranking system from Pre-Season thru
the end of the season and we would just be doubling our work. So without much fan fare
here are our top 5 teams that we feel we should see according to their system.
PLEASE NOTE that IF it does not match it means we are correct and that computer they
use is bonkers hahaha.
1A: Top 5:
Order doesn’t matter but will give it a shot.
#1 Williams 6-0: I feel they have a better strength of Schedule:
3 BIG WINS: Pahranagat Valley (NV), Bagdad, Salome
#2 St David 6-0: Next in Line:
2 BIG WINS: Mogollon, Bagdad, IF by any chance they are ahead of Williams
it will be because of Baboquivari 3-3, and Duncan 2-3. BUT Bagdads
Strength of Schedule dwarfs Babo or Duncan. Mogollon will carry
a lot of weight because of their strength of schedule of Hayden, San Man,
and Superior so that could carry them into 1st.
#3 Hayden 6-0: Weakest schedule of the 3 undefeated teams IMO
Big Win: Mogollon: However, they do have teams they have beaten that have won
a bunch of games like Joe City 4-2, and Cicero Prep and even Tempe Prep BUT those
teams have played a much weaker schedule and should carry less weight?!
#4 Mogollon 4-2: Very Strong Schedule:
Big Wins: Superior (a 1 loss team) San Manuel (1 loss team)
What keeps them above Salome IMO is the 2 losses vs undefeated teams with
strong strength of schedules! They get to carry St. David and Haydens
undefeated baggage with them which should be enough IMO to catapult
them above Salome. (BUT it is the AIA PPTs hahaha) I would be totally
surprised to see St David and Hayden above Williams and Mogollon above
an undefeated Williams team.
#5 Salome 4-1: Out of the remaining 1 loss teams-(Superior and San Manuel) they
have played a much harder schedule while the other 2 teams carry a lot of baggage
vs some teams with hardly any wins. If there is ONE thing we know is that carrying the
baggage of very poor losing teams will hurt you in the end. Bagdad has a very tough
schedule BUT they defeated Bagdad so hardly any chance Bagdad will jump them and I
just do not see any team jumping over Salome with only 1 loss.
Next in line in any order: Bagdad-(Strength of Schedule)-Superior-San Manuel-(1 Loss)
FYI-my prediction is these 5 teams being in the top 5 as we all know we all get our teeth kicked
in when we think we have figured out even remotely how this PPT system works hahahaha.
2A: Top 5:
Order doesn’t matter but will give it a shot.
I will first deal with the 4 undefeated teams. Out of these teams I believe the strength
of schedule goes in order: Morenci, Holbrook, Camp Verde and then Alchesay.
I wanted to add that no matter how weak a schedule is the AIA system will place teams high
until they actually lose.
The issue for now is what other teams would leapfrog them. So IMO I believe Alchesay will
not be in the top 5. So that leaves the other 3 but we also have 2 teams IMO especially Pima
who has 1 loss BUT that was what I call a very good loss which can have them actually compete
vs Morenci for the overall #1 spot. Losing to an undefeated Thatcher team IMO is very good but
I still think Morenci will hang onto the top spot. I just wanted to mention Pima because “DIRK”
said I needed to do it. So with all of this said lets start our top 5 list:
#1 Morenci 5-0: They have a very strong strength of schedule.
BIG WINS: SCA-Willcox
#2 Pima: Also very strong Schedule and could be #1:
Big Wins: Willcox-SCA-Thatcher LOSS is near as good of a win IMO
I really will be surprised if Pima drops down past #2 spot.
#3 Holbrook 5-0:
BIG WINS: Page-all other teams have a lot of loss baggage for them.
Putting them at 3 is mainly as an undefeated team which carries a lot of weight.
HOWEVER-we could see Willcox sneak into this spot as well based on their
strength of schedule but 2 losses is 2 losses for the Cowboys.
#4 Willcox 3-2: Probably toughest schedule equal to Pima but 2 losses.
Big Wins: GC-Benson-(they have won 4 games)-2 losses to pima/Morenci will
carry a lot of weight with strength of schedule and wins. So in theory Willcox
could be higher as I stated but I think that extra loss keeps them here or at 5 spot.
I would be totally surprised to see them out of top 5.
#5 Camp Verde 5-0: Very weak schedule but being undefeated carries a lot of weight
so we should see them in the top 5. (They could go higher)
Big Wins: Scottsdale Prep who is 5-1 but also has played a weak schedule.
Playing weaker teams with hardly any wins really hurts them so they could drop
out of the top 5 and they could be jumped over by San Tan Charter. But I think top 5
is fairly safe prediction.
PREDICTION: Camp Verde will go undefeated and be a top 5 seed!
Looking In: San Tan Charter 5-1: Not the toughest schedule but some good wins and the loss
to San Tan Foothills carries some weight because of who they have played. Not sure
if they will slip in but could surprise us with how the AIA PPPTs work.
Alchesay 4-0: Will probably be a top 10 closer to top 5??
3A: Top 5:
Order doesn’t matter but will give it a shot.
Just like in 2A I will first deal with the 3 undefeated teams. Out of these teams I believe the strength
of schedule goes in order: Thatcher 5-0, Sabino 5-0, and then Florence 6-0.
There is no doubt Thatcher has played the hardest schedule up to NOW. But the one interesting
point that may come up is that extra win by Florence! They have not had a real difficult schedule
but an extra win is an extra win.
Now for the rest of the teams: Eastmark 4-1, Show Low 4-1, Valley Christian 5-1, PRCA 5-1
The rest of the 1 loss teams do not have a chance to be in the top 5 IMO: It is all based on strength of
schedule or lack of for Kingman, Paradise Honors, ALA and Page. So lets get it started:
#1 Thatcher 5-0: Tough strength of schedule plus undefeated
Big Wins: Eastmark, Pima, PRCA, RV
I do not think any team can jump over them UNLESS Florence being 6-0.
The #2 spot will be tricky IMO! Eastmark did lose to Thatcher but they defeated 4A ALA-GN which
is gonna carry a lot of strength! The key is how bad will they be hit with the loss to Thatcher vs 2 other
undefeated teams?? Drumrollllllllll
#2 Sabino 5-0: Strength of schedule plus undefeated I think is enough to get #2 Spot.
Big Wins: Coolidge-Sahuaro
#3 Eastmark 4-1: Loss to Thatcher and their baggage carries them to #2 or #3 tough choice here IMO.
Big Wins: ALA-GN-Loss to Thatcher-
My head says this spot but my heart and genius says #2!
#4 Florence 6-0: Weaker schedule BUT the extra win could get them higher or because of weak schedule drop
maybe to #5 but you cannot tell as 6-0 is still 6-0. I can see them as high as 2.
Big Wins: Coolidge-Vista Grande
This #5 Spot is difficult: Show Low and PRCA are my choices because Show Low defeated VC so I think VC is out of the top 5. PRCA has some good wins and a good loss to Thatcher so far BUT when you look at Show Low they beat VC-they beat Payson and RV BUT their loss to Snowflake could carry tons of weight. So my choice is Show Low with hesitation.
#5 Show Low 4-1: Nice Strength of Schedule
Big Wins: VC-Payson-Round Valley and loss to a 3-1 snowflake.
Looking In:
Wildcard: PRCA 5-1 who could easily make top 5 or as high as #2!
VC 5-1: I think they are in top 7 but loss to Show Low hurts them BUT they do have that extra game at 5-1 and they beat 4A AZCP who has a strong record as well so watch where VC lands?!
As always these are predicting what the AIA PPTs are gonna do as we feel our rankings are the true
order of teams.
3A was the most difficult to predict but if we can get 5 of 5 in each division we will be happy.
Have a great day! We will post AIA results at 10ish!
